INFLATION RETURNS

INFLATION RETURNS

        INFLATION RETURNS                  091917

        By Isaac Cohen*

Three hurricanes can help you make up your mind. As a consequence of the devastation inflicted to the Gulf of Mexico region in the United States, inflation immediately picked up and this time was not due to factors which could be dismissed as transitory noise. Last week, the Labor Department revealed an August increase of 0.4 percent in consumer prices, since July. Among the main contributing factors was the sharp increase in gasoline prices due to hurricane Harvey’s shut down of oil refining capacity in Texas and Louisiana, equivalent to one fifth of national refineries and petrochemical plants. The US Gulf Coast processes around half of US oil consumption, therefore crude oil prices approached $50 per barrel and the national average price of regular gasoline went over $2.70 per gallon.

But the impact of the hurricanes was not the only factor, because without food and fuel prices still increased 0.2 percent in August, above the central bank’s annual target of 2 percent, while unemployment remained low, at 4.4 percent also in August. The question is if the central bank authorities will conclude inflation has returned and that it is time for another interest rate increase and to start reducing the Federal Reserve’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

Answers to these questions may be available in Washington DC, on Wednesday, September 20, at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, during the press conference offered by the Chair Janet Yellen.  

Capac Celebra Día de la Canción Criolla

Capac Celebra Día de la Canción Criolla

Compartimos la invitación de La institución CAPAC

In the name of the organizing committee of “Dia de la Cancion Criolla in New York” where The House Preservation of Art and Culture of Peru in USA, (CAPAC) would like to invite you and your family members to join us for our traditional annual event Dia de la Cancion Criolla in New York .

We want to continue with the tradition of showing the image of Peru through its music, dance and songs. . We would like to have the honor of having your presence representing your organization, institution or company. Vamos a unirnos! For further information contact: FOR CAPAC: Rufino Ortiz President 347 697 7165 Nora Segovia Public Relations 917 680 7408
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY  / RIESGO E INCERTIDUMBRE

RISK AND UNCERTAINTY / RIESGO E INCERTIDUMBRE

paccli, pacclinyRISK AND UNCERTAINTY       030315

By Isaac Cohen*

The difference between risk and uncertainty is that risk can be measured, while uncertainty cannot be quantified. For the last six years, the central bank of the United States, known as the Federal Reserve, has provided “future guidance” to the markets about keeping interest close to zero, facilitating the calculation of risk.

The most recent example was provided, last week, by Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen, in congressional testimony on monetary policy. Chairwoman Yellen said the central bank could still be patient about raising interest rates. She also said the interest rate liftoff may begin two meetings after the word “patient” disappears from central bank statements. This was understood as meaning that liftoff may start sometime after the Federal Reserve June meeting.

But over the weekend, at a conference held at the University of Chicago, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer introduced an element of uncertainty. Asked what happens after liftoff and what can be expected in the long run, Vice Chairman Fischer said “There is no good reason that I can see for us to telegraph every action that we have to take.” Therefore, in the absence of guidance, uncertainty will increase and markets and investors will have to return to relying on economic data to decipher the monetary policy stance.

*International analyst and consultant. Commentator on economic and financial issues for CNN en Español TV and radio. Former Director, UNECLAC.

 

RIESGO E INCERTIDUMBRE         030315

Por Isaac Cohen*

La diferencia entre el riesgo y la incertidumbre es que el riesgo se puede medir, mientras que la incertidumbre no se puede cuantificar. Durante los últimos seis años, el banco central de Estados Unidos, conocido como la Reserva Federal, le ha proporcionado “orientación futura” a los mercados respecto a mantener la tasa de interés cercana a cero, facilitando el cálculo del riesgo.

El ejemplo más reciente fue proporcionado por la Presidenta de la Reserva Federal Janet Yellen, en testimonio ante el Congreso sobre la política monetaria. La Presidenta Yellen dijo que el el banco central podía seguir siendo paciente respecto a aumentar la tasa de interés. También dijo que el despegue puede comenzar dos reuniones después que la palabra “paciente” desaparezca de las declaraciones del banco central. Esto fue interpretado como que el despegue comenzará después de la reunión de junio de la Reserva Federal.

Sin embargo durante el fin de semana, en una conferencia celebrada en la Universidad de Chicago, el Vicepresidente de la Reserva Federal Stanley Fischer introdujo un elemento de incertidumbre. Interrogado sobre lo que ocurrirá después del despegue y lo que puede esperarse a largo plazo, el Vicepresidente Fischer dijo, “no hay una buena razón para que telegrafiemos cada acción que tengamos que adoptar.” Por lo cual, ante la ausencia de orientación, aumentará la incertidumbre y los mercados y los inversionistas tendrán que volver a basarse en los datos económicos para descifrar la postura de la política monetaria.

*Analista y consultor internacional, ex-Director de la Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington. Comentarista de economía y finanzas de CNN en Español TV y radio.

Image Post

Image Post

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Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula.

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Aenean orci arcu, cursus sed enim nec, gravida accumsan neque. Suspendisse non libero vitae tellus aliquam rutrum. Etiam elementum, nulla vel elementum dictum, lectus lorem dignissim purus, at convallis mauris lacus vehicula dui. Nulla quis viverra nulla, sed facilisis dolor. In hac habitasse platea dictumst.

Proin vel diam id dui pharetra commodo. Praesent commodo enim non molestie varius. Phasellus elementum odio faucibus diam sollicitudin, in bibendum quam feugiat. Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula, vitae iaculis ipsum metus non risus. Integer eleifend tincidunt adipiscing. Sed id dignissim lectus. Fusce accumsan mauris et suscipit pretium.Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.

Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula.

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Proin vel diam id dui pharetra commodo. Praesent commodo enim non molestie varius. Phasellus and elementum odio faucibus diam sollicitudin, in bibendum quam feugiat. Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula, vitae iaculis ipsum metus non risus. Integer eleifend tincidunt adipiscing. Sed id dignissim lectus. Fusce accumsan mauris et suscipit pretium.Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, quickconsectetur adipiscing elit. Aliquam condimentum lacus et quam suscipit viverra. In a velit quis elit adipiscing malesuada. Praesent pretium dolor eros, vitae sodales justo porta nec.

Aenean orci arcu, cursus sed enim nec, gravida accumsan neque. Suspendisse non libero vitae tellus aliquam rutrum. Etiam elementum, nulla vel elementum dictum, lectus lorem dignissim purus, at convallis mauris lacus vehicula dui. Nulla quis viverra nulla, sed facilisis dolor. In hac habitasse platea dictumst.

Proin vel diam id dui pharetra commodo. Praesent commodo enim non molestie varius. Phasellus elementum odio faucibus diam sollicitudin, in bibendum quam feugiat. Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula, vitae iaculis ipsum metus non risus. Integer eleifend tincidunt adipiscing. Sed id dignissim lectus. Fusce accumsan mauris et suscipit pretium.Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit.

Duis tortor lectus, vehicula in vulputate eu, malesuada quis felis. Curabitur blandit, diam a tincidunt convallis, nulla urna accumsan ligula.

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